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Brazil will be the story of this World Cup. As the host nation, it will dominate every news feed. The Brazilian fans will dominate the stadiums. The Brazilian people will dominate the streets (sometimes in protest). The Brazilian team will dominate the tournament. There are many possible outcomes to this tournament, but only one probable outcome: Brazil!
The key on the pitch will be stamina and depth. So many games at this tournament will be played in difficult conditions. Manaus is expected to be like a sauna. Other locations will be similar, with temperatures near 27C as a minimum, and very high humidity. The last time the tournament was held in a country with such high heat was 1994, when yes, the Brazilians won in your USA. Again, it is because of stamina. You must have a deep roster for such conditions. Relying on two or three players is not enough. They will tire and need breaks. The Brazilian team is the deepest in the world, even if they do not have the biggest stars in the tournament. Plus they will have the fan support, which makes a big difference when one is fatigued and you must find energy.
Other traditional powers are bringing deep squads, and they will have their say. But they all have flaws except Germany, who I expect to see reach the final against Brazil. I have examined each group and here are a few notes on each:
Group A: 1. Brazil 2. Croatia 3. Mexico 4. Cameroon
It is unthinkable that Brazil do not win this group. Croatia have talented players such as Luka Modric, and Mexico are capable of beating any opponent when things go right for them, but they are not Brazil. Cameroon have hope here because neither Croatia or Mexico look dominating, but the Lions have never recaptured the magic they showed 24 years ago. I think Croatia edge Mexico for the second spot because the Mexican team looked very emotionally fragile during qualifying.
Group B: 1. Spain 2. Chile 3. Netherlands 4. Australia
Spain have had the most remarkable run. They won Euro '08, WC '10, and Euro '12. That is incredible. It is also going to end, but not in this group. Spain's "anaconda" soccer style will be right at home in the Brazilian rainforest, at least in the group stage. They are the masters of the 1-0 victory, and should be capable of doing that to all their opponents here. The Netherlands will attempt revenge in their opener against the Spanish, but the Dutch look like a spent force. Sneijder and Van der Vaart are getting old. Dirk Kuyt is already there. That will let Chile slip through to the second round, for what has become their customary second-round exit at the hands of Brazil. Australia? No G'day mate.
Group C: 1. Ivory Coast 2. Japan 3. Colombia 4. Greece
When Colombia lost their primary scorer Falcao to injury in the Franch Ligue 1, they lost this group. He was their primary threat and team leader. Now the group is 4 flawed teams hoping for a break. Ivory Coast have the most to gain and the most to lose. Their aging core should be desperate to finally advance past the first round, and now they have an opportunity to do that. Japan are always dangerous, but also find ways to lose games they should not lose. Greece will likely finish last because they do not score enough goals.
Group D: 1. Uruguay 2. Italy 3. England 4. Costa Rica
If Luis Suarez is truly injured, then the Uruguay hopes are in trouble. My sources say that he will be fine, and this Uruguay team has plenty of firepower elsewhere like Edson Cavani. They will score, even against Italy and England. They will advance, being very near to home. Costa Rica is game but outclassed in this, the next most difficult group in the entire tournament. That leaves Italy and England. If you had to bet everything you had on either the Italian soccer team or the English, which one would you choose? Me too.
Group E: 1. Ecuador 2. France 3. Switzerland 4. Honduras
France finish second here only because they enjoy making things difficult for themselves. They have far more talent than any other team in the group, and to not advance would be a major embarrassment. Switzerland have good players, but they are not nearly as good as their FIFA ranking suggests. Ecuador will have some local support, being so close to Brazil. It will help them overachieve in this round. Honduras will fight hard, but probably not advance.
Group F: 1. Bosnia-Herzegovina 2. Argentina 3. Nigeria 4. Iran
Iran look like the worst side in the tournament on paper. They will do well to earn a single point. The battle will be between the other three sides. Argentina have the most talent, but it is very top-heavy. Argentina is a side of strikers and wingers. An aging Javier Mascherano cannot be an entire midfield and defense by himself. Argentina will struggle despite their talent and only just advance. Bosnia have Edin Dzeko and he will get at least two goals, enough to help top the group. Nigeria are difficult to play, but they do not score enough goals.
Group G: 1. Portugal 2. Germany 3. Ghana 4. USA
I know this hurts you, but you must face reality. Your USA are the weakest team in this "Group of Death". Like Iran, you should be happy if Klinsmann can get that group to earn even a single point. Ghana have better strikers than you. Portugal and Germany are completely superior from top to bottom. I think Portugal finish on top of the group due to scheduling quirks. They get Ghana at the last, when Ghana will be desperate and vulnerable to counterattacks, which Portugal do very well. Germany will also struggle more against Klinsmann's USA side.
Group H: 1. Belgium 2. South Korea 3. Russia 4. Algeria
Belgium are too talented to not win this group, although their inexperience may make things difficult. South Korea and Russia are evenly matched. I think the Koreans' experience gives them a slight edge. Algeria will be looking to improve upon their showing four years ago, when they were the most boring team in the finals.
Once past the group stage, squad depth will become even more important, and only the teams with the most talent can expect to advance. I think Brazil, Italy, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, Uruguay, France, and Germany are the favorites. Of those sides, Argentina have a structural flaw in midfield and will not win. Portugal rely too heavily on one player, Ronaldo, and will not win. Spain are too old, and are overdue for a loss. They will not win. Uruguay will not win because after the 1950 final, if they were to win again on Brazilian soil there would be a war. France will not win because they are France and no longer have a leader like Zidane. That leaves Brazil, Italy, and Germany, the three most successful sides in World Cup history. Brazil are at home. They have the deepest squad. They will win the tournament, blessing us all with videos of Carnival-style celebrations, beautiful women crying, and people dancing on beaches.
Horst
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