Scouting the opposition -- Niners and Levi's Stadium

The San Francisco 49ers opened a new stadium right next to their practice facility in Santa Clara, California this season.  As luck would have it, this new facility is about 3 miles from NetApp headquarters, and therefore only about a mile from the hotel where I am staying this week. 

As even more luck would have it, the Dallas Cowboys are opening their season against said 49ers Sunday in Arlington.  So I called Jason Garrett and offered to do some scouting for him, since I was in the neighborhood and all....

Of course he agreed, given my EXTENSIVE insider knowledge about the NFL and gameplans in particular . Here is the first stage of my endeavors:

From the West

 

 

 

 

Granted, it's probably not the way most scouting departments run things, but then they don't get hired last-minute to do secret spy work on the opponent, either.  I start at the stadium itself.  You can learn a lot about your opponent by examining his home.  It's clear from this photo (and I apologize for the shaky, blurry spy-cam nature of some images here.... tricks of the trade and all....) that we most have to concern ourselves with the Niners' star player #20, "Inaugural".  I believe he's a running back and clearly the team wants to feature him prominently.  Also of note is #14, the utility-back "Season", who gets second billing.  Based on this, I think our defense must focus on shutting down numbers 20 and 14.  If we can do that, we have a chance.  Finally, I asked some locals, and they said there was no truth to the rumor that the Niners' preseason was so bad that Levi's asked to have their name removed from the stadium marquee.  It's just a construction issue (to which I can also attest.  Even though the stadium is "open" and hosting events, there are scores of construction folks still swarming all over the place at all hours).

From the East

As verified on the other side, where the "Levi's" sign is still very visible.  Why yes, that IS a soccer field directly adjacent to the East side of the stadium.  In fact, it's three (very nice) soccer fields that comprise the Santa Clara Youth Soccer complex.  The Niners and the city of Santa Clara (which is really just a San Jose suburb) went through all kinds of hoops to get this stadium done....but they couldn't budge the youth soccer facility.  Personally, I have no problem with that, although I'd hate to be the ball kid at the soccer game after someone hoofs it out-of-bounds on that side next to the stadium.  Goodness knows where it'll bounce.

Practice facility gate

Just East of the stadium and South of the soccer complex is the Niners' practice facility.  Just in case anyone didn't know it, the security gates and the sign made it clear.

So you're saying the public isn't welcome here?

Santa Clara's finest

I tried to wheedle these gentlemen into opening the facility for me, but they wouldn't budge.  It probably didn't help that when asked to show ID, I pulled my driver's license out of a Cowboys wallet.  Dang.  Chalk one up to experience.

The practice field

But it turns out that I could still observe the practice field from the top of the BART terminal stairs.  No, it's not the field with the sprinkler going (that would be the soccer facility again).  It's the little patch of green above that, the one mostly obscured by trees and gates.  But I think I saw someone moving out there for just an instant.  I've included that in my report to coach Garrett, and I'm sure that as the week progresses I'll see a lot of action from here.

So there you have it.  I'll grant you that the report is a little light on specifics, but then it's still just Tuesday.  I can also report that access to Levi's stadium itself is actually marvelous, with a terrific public bike/walking path that leads right up to the gate, along with the aforementioned BART train stop right next door.  Unfortunately for the local folks, however, early reports of events speak of diabolical traffic jams.  There are really only two places to park nearby (mostly reserved for VIP parking anyway), and both are accessed only by one major street.  Making things worse is that one of those lots is shared with the local amusement park.  In other words, it's a good thing there's a nice multi-mile path to the stadium, because you'll need to use it.  You can't drive there.

Naturally I can't share with you all all the scouting tidbits that I will be sending to coach Garrett, but I thought you'd appreciate this early look at the effort. 

SAH

It's NFL Preview time!

Since 1989, I've been writing my own personal NFL preview, complete with predictions.  Here is the latest version: 
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3EMk_GRc0wEUGk1dlFmWnQ0dEU/edit?usp=sharing

 Your life is now better for having read that!  You're welcome!

SAH

Math is not God; It's not even merely a guide

Mathematics is not a moral code.  It’s not a philosophy, religion, creed, or even a self-help guide.  I bring this up because there seem to be a great many people confused on the point.  In many Western societies, there has been a rush to anoint mathematics as the guide for all mankind.  I’ve even heard people say they believe in God “as a kind of mathematical formula”.  But there’s a big problem.  Mathematics doesn’t answer the great question posed to all of mankind from the beginning of recorded history:  Why?

Basically, why should I do action X?  Numbers don't given any answers.  For example, you may hear someone say, "10,000 illegal immigrants are pouring through our borders every month!  We have to do something!"  OK.  Even assuming your numbers are correct, why do we have to do something about it?    I might as well tell you, "11 times 11 yields 121!  We have to do something about it!"

I think most people in these situations are implying some moral value which has nothing to do with the numbers.  They can do this on topics ranging as far and wide as “climate control” to “income redistribution” to “euthanasia”.  They are fooling themselves. They are appealing to numbers to explain their own morality, something for which the numbers are completely ill-equipped.  Many of these topics for which people use numbers to somehow support their arguments have already assumed the moral stance.  Numbers may tell us all kinds of things about the climate, but they don’t tell us whether any particular climate is “ideal”, or if that climate should be ideal for only humans, or if it’s worth putting huge numbers of people through huge types of changes and demands in order to attempt to change the climate.  Numbers may tell us that money is unequally owned, or is concentrated in certain areas, or used for certain things, but numbers cannot tell us whether or not that is a proper state of affairs. Numbers may tell us that adopting euthanasia as a standard medical practice would save some amount of money, or generate certain transfers of property, or relieve some persons of a particular kind of burden, but they cannot tell us whether the money matters, or if particular kinds of burdens should even be relieved.

At the end of it, most people spouting the numbers have already made their own subjective moral determinations.  They may already believe that it is a moral imperative to keep the climate as close as possible to how it was in 1975 (if that's even humanly possible... that we can control the weather).  They may believe that it is a moral imperative that all people have an equal amount of money.  They may believe it to be a moral imperative to save money on health care.  In short, they are trying to “impose their morals” on all of us.  But by what right do they have to do so?  Besides their own minds, to what can they point in order to support their stance?   From where did they get those morals?

All of this is also to point out something for another post, which is this: Why are so many people who are relying on Christian morals to buttress their arguments for certain actions so eager to disparage or eliminate Christianity from public view?

World Cup 2014 Predictions

Four years ago, I predicted that Argentina would win the World Cup.  I was badly wrong.  This year, I decided to ask old acquaintance Horst Blevins to weigh in and share his thoughts on the upcoming tournament.  Horst used to make a career of writing about soccer and he correctly foresaw the Italians winning the cup in 2006.  He's clearly qualified.  While you can go to any website and get their take, I'm fortunate to have such an "insider" contact who spent many years in Europe following the game at the highest levels. With that introduction, I give you the official Horst Blevins World Cup 2014 predictions, as delivered to me verbatim from the man himself:
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Guten Tag Stephen!  It has been a long time.  Of course I have been thinking about the World Cup.  Has not everyone lately?  I would be happy to share my thoughts with you and anyone else.  But then, there is only one thought to be truthful:  Brazil!!

Brazil will be the story of this World Cup.  As the host nation, it will dominate every news feed.  The Brazilian fans will dominate the stadiums.  The Brazilian people will dominate the streets (sometimes in protest).  The Brazilian team will dominate the tournament.  There are many possible outcomes to this tournament, but only one probable outcome:  Brazil!

The key on the pitch will be stamina and depth.  So many games at this tournament will be played in difficult conditions.  Manaus is expected to be like a sauna.  Other locations will be similar, with temperatures near 27C as a minimum, and very high humidity.  The last time the tournament was held in a country with such high heat was 1994, when yes, the Brazilians won in your USA.  Again, it is because of stamina.  You must have a deep roster for such conditions.  Relying on two or three players is not enough.  They will tire and need breaks.  The Brazilian team is the deepest in the world, even if they do not have the biggest stars in the tournament. Plus they will have the fan support, which makes a big difference when one is fatigued and you must find energy.

Other traditional powers are bringing deep squads, and they will have their say.  But they all have flaws except Germany, who I expect to see reach the final against Brazil.  I have examined each group and here are a few notes on each:

Group A: 1.  Brazil  2.  Croatia  3.  Mexico  4. Cameroon
It is unthinkable that Brazil do not win this group.  Croatia have talented players such as Luka Modric, and Mexico are capable of beating any opponent when things go right for them, but they are not Brazil.   Cameroon have hope here because neither Croatia or Mexico look dominating, but the Lions have never recaptured the magic they showed 24 years ago.  I think Croatia edge Mexico for the second spot because the Mexican team looked very emotionally fragile during qualifying.

Group B: 1.  Spain  2.  Chile  3.  Netherlands  4.  Australia
Spain have had the most remarkable run.  They won Euro '08, WC '10, and Euro '12.  That is incredible.  It is also going to end, but not in this group.  Spain's "anaconda" soccer style will be right at home in the Brazilian rainforest, at least in the group stage.  They are the masters of the 1-0 victory, and should be capable of doing that to all their opponents here.  The Netherlands will attempt revenge in their opener against the Spanish, but the Dutch look like a spent force.  Sneijder and Van der Vaart are getting old.  Dirk Kuyt is already there.  That will let Chile slip through to the second round, for what has become their customary second-round exit at the hands of Brazil.  Australia?  No G'day mate.

Group C: 1.  Ivory Coast  2.  Japan  3.  Colombia  4. Greece
When Colombia lost their primary scorer Falcao to injury in the Franch Ligue 1, they lost this group.  He was their primary threat and team leader.  Now the group is 4 flawed teams hoping for a break.  Ivory Coast have the most to gain and the most to lose.  Their aging core should be desperate to finally advance past the first round, and now they have an opportunity to do that.  Japan are always dangerous, but also find ways to lose games they should not lose.  Greece will likely finish last because they do not score enough goals.

Group D: 1. Uruguay  2. Italy  3. England  4. Costa Rica
If Luis Suarez is truly injured, then the Uruguay hopes are in trouble.  My sources say that he will be fine, and this Uruguay team has plenty of firepower elsewhere like Edson Cavani.  They will score, even against Italy and England.  They will advance, being very near to home.  Costa Rica is game but outclassed in this, the next most difficult group in the entire tournament.  That leaves Italy and England.  If you had to bet everything you had on either the Italian soccer team or the English, which one would you choose?  Me too.

Group E: 1. Ecuador  2. France  3. Switzerland  4. Honduras
France finish second here only because they enjoy making things difficult for themselves.  They have far more talent than any other team in the group, and to not advance would be a major embarrassment.  Switzerland have good players, but they are not nearly as good as their FIFA ranking suggests.  Ecuador will have some local support, being so close to Brazil.  It will help them overachieve in this round.  Honduras will fight hard, but probably not advance.

Group F: 1. Bosnia-Herzegovina  2. Argentina  3. Nigeria  4. Iran
Iran look like the worst side in the tournament on paper.  They will do well to earn a single point.  The battle will be between the other three sides.  Argentina have the most talent, but it is very top-heavy.  Argentina is a side of strikers and wingers.  An aging Javier Mascherano cannot be an entire midfield and defense by himself.  Argentina will struggle despite their talent and only just advance.  Bosnia have Edin Dzeko and he will get at least two goals, enough to help top the group.  Nigeria are difficult to play, but they do not score enough goals.

Group G: 1. Portugal  2. Germany  3. Ghana  4. USA
I know this hurts you, but you must face reality.  Your USA are the weakest team in this "Group of Death".  Like Iran, you should be happy if Klinsmann can get that group to earn even a single point.  Ghana have better strikers than you.  Portugal and Germany are completely superior from top to bottom.  I think Portugal finish on top of the group due to scheduling quirks.  They get Ghana at the last, when Ghana will be desperate and vulnerable to counterattacks, which Portugal do very well.  Germany will also struggle more against Klinsmann's USA side.

Group H: 1. Belgium  2. South Korea  3. Russia  4. Algeria
Belgium are too talented to not win this group, although their inexperience may make things difficult.  South Korea and Russia are evenly matched.  I think the Koreans' experience gives them a slight edge.  Algeria will be looking to improve upon their showing four years ago, when they were the most boring team in the finals.

Once past the group stage, squad depth will become even more important, and only the teams with the most talent can expect to advance.  I think Brazil, Italy, Argentina, Portugal, Spain, Uruguay, France, and Germany are the favorites.  Of those sides, Argentina have a structural flaw in midfield and will not win.  Portugal rely too heavily on one player, Ronaldo, and will not win.  Spain are too old, and are overdue for a loss.  They will not win.  Uruguay will not win because after the 1950 final, if they were to win again on Brazilian soil there would be a war.  France will not win because they are France and no longer have a leader like Zidane.  That leaves Brazil, Italy, and Germany, the three most successful sides in World Cup history.  Brazil are at home. They have the deepest squad.  They will win the tournament, blessing us all with videos of Carnival-style celebrations, beautiful women crying, and people dancing on beaches.

Horst